[Updated with additional citations on June 26]
Two cinematic works have captured my imagination and never let go. I suppose everyone has a favorite film or TV show, but that’s not what I mean.
On a superficial level, The Wire (2002) is about cops versus drug dealers in Baltimore. More accurately, over five seasons, the series tells the story of the delegitimization of the American political system. For me, the series helps answer the sickening question of how someone the likes of Donald Trump could become president of the United States.
The Godfather (1972), on the face of it, chronicles the Sicilian Corleone family, the La Cosa Nostra, and Italian organized crime. An epic saga, it is profoundly about human nature, selling your soul, twisted loyalty, and megalomania.
The opening scene of The Godfather came to mind today when I heard that President Trump had ordered Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (whose cinematic counterpart is Amerigo Bonasera in Godfather I ) to turn those IAF warplanes heading for Tehran around — to forget about any retaliatory bombing raid. Netanyahu did just that.
That is a turnaround from the days when, despite our dependency on the US, Menachem Begin was able to hold at bay the notion that Israel is Washington’s vassal state.
Netanyahu had to do more than kiss Trump’s hand after boxing him into bombing Fordo. Somehow, our clever trickster of a prime minister deluded himself that there would be no permanent fee for this service. His American Godfather now owns him — and us.
Only history will determine whether the price was worth paying.
To be sure, the dead-eyed Trump is no Vito Corleone. Vito is measured and deliberative. He keeps a low profile and will not engage in any behavior — like selling heroin — proscribed by his ethical albeit criminal values. For Corleone, loyalty is a two-way street. He is cautious about who he does business with. If he flies off the handle, it is behind closed doors, not on the White House lawn.
As I wrote in yesterday’s [Monday] posting, Israelis across the political spectrum are grateful to Trump for bombing Fordo. Iran’s nuclear weapons program appears to be in ashes, and half of the mullahs’ ballistic missile arsenal is reportedly pulverized – this is a big win for Israel. And for Netanyahu politically. (*)
However, like any Trump “deal,” there will be ongoing litigation and endless — hopefully nonradioactive — loose ends. (**) And there’s the matter of the dangerously nutty Houthis and ending the increasingly pointless Gaza War.
Netanyahu’s mantra will be: “Israel achieved all of the war’s goals.” Yet perception-wise, this was a bad finish for Israel that presents Iran with a gloating opportunity.
Moreover, the Netanyahu government, which, 627 days into the October 7th War, has yet to address its dislocations in Israel’s south and north efficiently, will now also have to effectively help the thousands of Israelis who have lost their homes in the Iran War.
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid has magnanimously praised Operation Rising Lion as “one of the most glorious operations in the history of warfare.”
Now we must turn the military achievement into a diplomatic one: to demand and obtain an agreement that guarantees Iran will never be nuclear and will dismantle its missile program; to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza; to set Israel on a new path.
To set Israel on a new path. Amen.
(*) US strikes did not destroy Iran nuclear programme, says intelligence assessment, and Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says
(**) U.S. Strikes Set Back Iran Nuclear Program by a Few Months, Initial Report Says
This one arrived via email:
I have been reading your posts on the current situation. I'm puzzled.
We sort of know that the public, including media pundits, have been (and continue to be)) played. Not everything we hear or see is apparently obviously comprehensible. So my question is how can you be so confident that your take is in the right direction.
I am not quibbling about epistemology. I just wonder if you are taking your opinions/speculations far too seriously. Like so many people, especially pundits, you seem to be letting wishful thinking affect your analysis.
So I humbly suggest that you sprinkle a bunch of IMHOs among your speculations, both for the sake of your readers and as your own reminders.
Let's hope to hear good news.
Reuben F
Thanks for these messages via WhatsApp
"Great perceptive article , Elliot 👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽" (Jeff G)
"Unfortunately, Israel is too dependent on military aid and sales from the U.S. Israel is now at the mercy of Donald Trump and every President who comes after him. Trump has only been in office for 6 months, and every day there is something new. Our future in the Middle East is like a rollercoaster ride. How will we ever feel secure again? Yesterday morning, we were lavishing praise on the US attack, until later that evening, we realised that the Iranian attack on the US base in Qatar was staged to let Iran save face. What a joke!" (Marlene H)