DAY 3 OF THE ISRAEL-IRAN WAR

DAY 618 OF THE OCTOBER 7TH WAR

Time was running out

What is the goal of Israel’s war against Iran?

As I see it, there are two goals: Foremost, to “stop” Iran from building a nuclear weapon of mass destruction that is specifically aimed at Israel’s destruction; and second, to degrade Iran’s ability to deploy conventional ballistic missiles in such numbers that they overwhelm Israel’s capacity to intercept them.

And Israel’s “in my dream” goals?

To set the stage for regime change. To that end, to create chaos by every means necessary.

Why now?

There was no choice, we are told. After October 7, 2023, Israel learned that Iran was making a concerted, superfast effort to put all the logistical pieces together to complete a nuclear bomb and the ballistic missile warhead package to carry it. Israel struck as the regime was maybe weeks away from this goal.

What do you make of the IDF’s achievements?

Breathtaking. What the IDF and Mossad have accomplished will be studied by military historians for generations to come. I am astonished and grateful – it is hard to process it all.

Can Israel — on its own — destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and permanently cripple its nuclear WMD program?

The consensus is no, not without the US military, its B1 bombers, and bunker-buster ordnance.

So, what is Israel hoping for?

Firstly, to set the program back as far as possible. Ultimately, to pressure the mullahs to concede their nuclear weapons program when they are forced back to the negotiating table. Until now, the Iranians have just been buying time at the Oman negotiations.

In short, to help Donald Trump get his Nobel Peace Prize.

Why wouldn’t Iran just hang tough?

Because time may be on Israel’s side. The regime’s legitimacy may be crumbling — and rather than the ongoing humiliation of further, crippling Israeli attacks on Iran’s most precious economic assets and the continued targeted killings of its political and military echelons, the Supreme Leader could decide that maintaining the Islamic Revolution’s regime is the first imperative.

Wait. Since when does a religious fanatic concede? Especially if the legitimacy of the regime is tied to standing up to the Zionists.

That is a valid point. I am not convinced that, at the age of 86, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei will yield. Something could happen to him that would clear the path to a negotiated compromise. Of course, that would be in the interest of all the peoples of the region.

What is US President Donald Trump’s role in all this?

I can’t speculate on what a narcissistic, changeable, transactional character like 79-year-old Trump might do. The president habitually eschews subjects and predicates in his sentences, so I find it hard to parse his thoughts.

It is more prudent to take note of what he does (though he often reverses himself) rather than what he says. Trump administration officials unhelpfully leaked to the media that Israel planned to attack — even before the State Department issued a Red Travel Alert to US diplomats and citizens in the Middle East on Thursday morning Israel time.

As The Wall Street Journal reported: “Trump sought to persuade Israel to delay its military operation, but he shifted course after the strikes began.” He is a shapeshifter.

Also on Thursday, hours before Israel attacked Iran, Trump said that the US and Iran were close to an agreement, that an attack could still happen, and that the Iranians must not get nuclear weapons. “I’m getting more and more —less confident about it. They seem to be delaying, and I think that is a shame, but I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago,” he said.

Afterward, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Israel’s airstrikes on Iran as a “unilateral action.” Next, Trump claimed he knew all about it.

“They should now come to the table to make a deal before it’s too late,” Trump opined on Friday.

But the US is helping Israel. Right?

Absolutely. Out of self-interest, partly. US personnel have intercepted drones and missiles that Iran has fired at Israel. And we ordinary citizens are immensely grateful.

What must Israel avoid?

Being seen as having forced America into a war with Iran. Iran is a terrorist state. We can’t discount its capacity to bring about attacks on the US homeland.

So far, Teheran has been careful not to strike at US personnel. Doing so would give Trump a pretext to take out its nuclear facilities. Such a miscalculation on the part of Iran would be a gift to Israel.

If it is in the interest of the US and Europe — and indeed of the world — to stop Iran, why doesn’t America do it?

Because the US is a depleted world power; it is sunset for America. Recognizing that the American public had no stomach for another Middle East war following the Iraq and Afghanistan disasters, Barack Obama signed the multilateral July 2015 JCPOA deal with Iran, which restricted Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

It was a face-saving exercise. As everyone understood or should have understood, JCPOA could not stop Iran from pursuing its semi-clandestine campaign to build a nuclear weapon. In May 2018, Trump walked away from the deal but — in Trumpian fashion — had no Plan B.

What worries you most? Go ahead, be a killjoy.

At this stage, the things we don’t know, we don’t know. Like an Israeli bombing run that sets off a radioactive leak from a damaged nuclear facility. Like maybe there is a completed bomb that the Iranians have that we don’t know about.

Like, just as in Gaza, we have no exit plan for Iran — and that we will “grab defeat from the jaws of victory” through hubris or partisan political considerations.